منتديات المُنى والأرب - Climate change and the Middle East

Climate change and the Middle East

The Middle East is the world’s most water-stressed region. Climate change is expected to make water resources even more scarce in countries such as Jordan and Palestine, which are already among the most water-scarce countries in the world, and will thereby contribute to even greater water stress in the region.

Global warming and global climate change are expected to cause a rise in sea level and extreme weather events such as drought or flooding, less precipitation, and a series of biodiversity alterations. Many species in the world are expected to become extinct, which is not a new phenomenon. What is new is the acceleration of the extinction rate that has been documented in a number of recent studies.

Given the particularity of the Middle East region, climate change will have an effect not only on the natural environment but on the political and socio-economic environments as well. Taking Jordan and Palestine as our main examples, we see that the water resources issue is one of the main components of th e Israeli/Palestinian-Arab conflict. In addition, Jordan as a country is affected by the war in Iraq and cannot sustain the huge number of Iraqi refugees that continue to flood to its borders and overuse its aquifers. In fact, since the Palestinian refugee influx in 1948, Jordan has been struggling to ensure adequate water resources for its population.

The social level is also affected. If water becomes too scarce under all these climate and political changes, then the marginalized communities will become the most “thirsty”; water prices will rise and priority will be given to those who pay more. This scenario will lead to another social-class ranking. Traces of this scenario already exist in Jordan and Palestine but not on a large scale.& nbsp;

An additional factor is the expected rise in sea level that could further contaminate the nearby aquifers such as the coastal aquifer of Gaza that should provide water to 1.5 million Palestinians. The annual decrease in precipitation has led to less freshwater availability for surface or ground water. In addition, a reduced amount of agricultural land will be available due to desertification and urban sprawling. This means that agriculture will be affected and the price of vegetables, fruits, and other agricultural products will rise as well, bringing about a further negative effect on marginalized communities.

This article does not aim to present a pessimistic vision for the Middle East but rather seeks to raise awareness concerning policy-making steps toward future environmental problems and how can they be mitigated. A series of policy actions should be taken at the level of the international community as well as at the local government level. The Kyoto Protocol is an example of cooperation among countries that have made a commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. As seen in Figure 1 above, the United States is one of the largest producers of greenhouse gases and has refused to join the Kyoto Protocol, thus exempting itself from responsibility toward the world community. On the regional level Israel needs to take measures to reduce the large-scale planting of water-consuming crops and the irrigation of large areas (as in the south) in order to conserve the use of wate r. The agricultural sector in Israel employs only 2 percent of the population and represents only 2.6 percent of Israel’s GDP (IMF and the CIA World Fact Book).

At the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Indonesia, which took place from December 3 to 14, Friends of the Earth Middle East (FoEME) issued a new report on the threats related to global warming. More than 180 countries participated in the conference where they discussed their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for the post-2012 period. (The Kyoto Protocol, the implementing instrument of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, covers the period 2008-2012.)

However, dealing with climate change and recognizing the looming crisis provides opportunities for local, cross-border, and international cooperation to ameliorate the problems that are already occurring and that are projected to intensify. Improving local demand- and supply-side water and energy management policies is essential and will only become more critical as the needs increase due to climate change. Israel as a developed economy must join the other countries that make up the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and commit to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Third-party donor assistance will play an important role in facilitating adaptation in countries such as Egypt, Palestine, and Jordan. Short-, medium-, and long-term planning efforts are needed , which necessitate cross-border cooperation. The ability to provide technological clean energy and water solutions domestically could enable the countries of the region to become part of the broader solution to address global climate change.

Iyad Aburdeineh is a Palestinian environmentalist who works for the Water and Environmental Development Organization (WEDO) as a coordinator for Friends of the Earth Middle East (FoEME). He has an undergraduate degree in chemistry from Bethlehem University (2002) and a master’s degree in environmental science and policy (concentration on water resources management) from George Mason University (2007). This article was inspired by the FoEME report on climate change.